top of page
  • Allen Wannamaker

"Hubble" Predicts Top 10 at Zach Brewer Classic






YesterYear Racing™ AI analyst named "Hubble" predicted the outcome of the upcoming Zach Brewer Classic which will be run on April 23, 2024. The race will be Round Four of the YesterYear Racing™ Series and will be run in honor of the late Zach Brewer, a SMART Modified Tour driver from Winston-Salem, North Carolina.


Hubble's prediction is as follows:


"I'll start by reviewing the data in the spreadsheet to understand the information available and how it can help in predicting the outcome of the upcoming modified race at North Wilkesboro Speedway. Then, I'll develop a model with appropriate weightings for different factors and predict the top 10 finishers, along with identifying potential dark horses.


Let's look at the data first.

The dataset includes several potentially predictive metrics for each driver's past performance at North Wilkesboro Speedway, such as:


  • Starts: Number of races started.

  • Laps: Total laps completed.

  • Laps Led: Total laps led during races.

  • % Laps Led: Percentage of laps led.

  • Incidents Per Lap: Rate of incidents per lap.

  • Pole Positions: Number of times starting from the pole position.

  • Average Race Starting Position: Mean starting position in races.

  • Average Race Finishing Position: Mean finishing position in races.

  • # Wins: Total number of race wins.

  • Win %: Percentage of races won.

  • # Top 5 Finishes: Total top 5 finishes.

  • # Top 10 Finishes: Total top 10 finishes.

  • % Top 10 Finishes: Percentage of races finishing in the top 10.

  • Passes: Total overtakes during races.

  • Quality Passes: High quality overtakes.

  • Closing Passes: Overtakes near the end of the race.

Before making predictions, let's exclude any drivers with zero starts at North Wilkesboro, as requested. Afterward, I'll analyze these variables and determine appropriate weightings to predict race outcomes. ​

Now, with the filtered data, I'll start developing the prediction model. Key factors to consider based on their likely correlation with race outcomes include:


  1. Average Race Finishing Position: Strong historical predictor of future performance.

  2. % Top 10 Finishes: Shows consistency in top-tier finishes.

  3. Laps Led & % Laps Led: Indicate dominance in past races.

  4. # Wins & Win %: Track proven winners.

  5. Incidents Per Lap: Lower rates suggest a safer, more consistent driver.

  6. Average Race Starting Position: Better starting positions can translate into better finishes.

I'll assign weightings to these variables based on their importance in predicting race outcomes. After that, I'll use the weighted averages to forecast the top 10 finishers. Let's calculate these weightings and predict the top 10 drivers. ​

Based on the weighted factors and their importance in predicting race outcomes, here are the drivers I forecast to finish in the top 10 positions for the upcoming race at North Wilkesboro Speedway, along with explanations for each prediction:


  1. Tom Ogle - Predicted to perform exceptionally well due to a high percentage of laps led, a high win percentage, and a strong historical finishing position.

  2. Dale Copeland - Strong historical finishes and a solid percentage of top 10 finishes contribute to a favorable prediction.

  3. Ryan Pittman - Good historical performance with a moderate number of wins and consistent top 10 finishes.

  4. Donny Moore - High number of starts with a considerable number of quality passes and laps led, indicating experience and skill at this track.

  5. Lowell Jewell - Significant number of starts and laps completed, along with a decent history of top 10 finishes.

  6. Chris Davis - Although not the most dominant in laps led, a balanced performance across wins, top 5 and top 10 finishes suggest reliability.

  7. Jeff Lyden - A solid contender with moderate laps led and a reasonable average starting position that could translate into a top finish.

  8. Chris Hazlip - Despite lower wins, a good balance in laps led and top finishes hints at potential for a strong race.

  9. Brian Bianchi - His lower average starting position impacts his prediction, but his race history shows potential for breaking into the top 10.

  10. Bruce Pearson - A good number of starts and a solid average finishing position him as a potential top 10 finisher.

Dark Horse Picks:

  • Bruce Pearson and Brian Bianchi are notable dark horses due to their ability to perform above their average starting positions and show competitive race finishes under less favorable conditions.

These predictions consider historical performance metrics that typically influence race outcomes and provide a statistical basis for each driver's potential performance in the upcoming race."

Comments


bottom of page