Ryan Pittman Notches First Win of the Season

Ryan Pittman took home the Virginia 150 victory Tuesday night and controlled most of the race. In a race riddled with cautions, Pittman prevailed due to being incredibly good on restarts and mistake free under pressure. Tom Ogle, who finished second, was on Pittman’s bumper all night, but the Ohio driver could not get in front. “Ryan was very fast. I really needed a long run to have a potential opportunity to get around him, but that did not happen. Even on a long run, I am not sure I could have gotten around him without Ryan making a mistake given the difficulty of passing here at the paper clip. He was smooth and consistent all night,” Ogle said in the post-race interview. Lloyd Moore rounded out the podium with a rather uneventful run, which is more than what most drivers could say.

The frequent caution flags were a bit of a surprise given only 19 drivers took the grid. In the YesterYear Classic, which was round one of the Series back in March, there were 29 drivers that started the race and less than half the cautions.

The YesterYear Racing™ League will go on hiatus in the month of May before returning to Thompson Speedway on June 4th for the Connecticut 150. Founder and League owner Allen Wannamaker stated, “It will give drivers a chance to test for some of the upcoming tracks we will go to, it will allow them to hopefully attend actual races and support their local tracks, and it will also free up 5 straight weeks of Tuesday nights to spend more time with family and friends. I never wanted this League to be a burden and simply another weekly sim racing series that would be a “time suck” for drivers. The great thing about following modified racing series in history is that these series do not race every week. They truly race only about 14-17 races per season.”

"Hubble" Predicts Donny Moore to Win the Virginia 150

YesterYear Racing™ AI "Hubble" likes Donny Moore in tonight's Virginia 150 tour modified race. The race is the fifth round of the YesterYear Racing League. Tonight's race ends a five-race southern stint. The League will take the month of May off before returning in June for races at Thompson Motor Speedway and Stafford Speedway. Hubble's prediction for tonight's race:

The dataset includes the following key statistics for each race car driver's performance at Martinsville Speedway:

• Driver Name: Name of the driver

• Starts: Number of races started

• Laps: Total laps completed

• Laps Led: Number of laps led by the driver

• % Laps Led: Percentage of laps led

• Incidents Per Lap: Rate of incidents per lap

• Pole Positions: Number of times the driver started in the pole position

• Average Race Starting Position: Average starting position in races

• Average Race Finishing Position: Average finishing position in races

• Win %: Winning percentage

• # Wins: Total number of wins

• # Top 5 Finishes: Number of top-5 finishes

• # Top 10 Finishes: Number of top-10 finishes

• % Top 10 Finishes: Percentage of finishes in the top 10

• Passes: Total number of overtakes

• Quality Passes: High-quality overtakes

• Closing Passes: Overtakes made towards the end of the race

Based on these features, the analysis will focus on weighting factors that historically have a significant correlation with race outcomes. Typically, key factors might include Laps Led, Average Race Starting Position, Average Race Finishing Position, # Top 5 Finishes, and # Top 10 Finishes due to their direct impact on race performance.

I'll proceed to exclude drivers with 0 starts at Martinsville Speedway, as requested, and analyze the remaining data to predict the top 10 drivers for the upcoming race. Let's start by cleaning the data and then building a predictive model using a weighted analysis. ​

The statistics provide insights into various performance metrics across the drivers who have participated in races at Martinsville Speedway. Given the range of data, I will now define weightings for each of the important features to predict the outcome of the upcoming 150 lap race. The key factors and proposed weightings based on their importance and impact on the race outcome are:

1. Average Race Finishing Position (30% weighting): Directly indicative of a driver's ability to finish races in high positions.

2. % Top 10 Finishes (20% weighting): Reflects consistency in high placements.

3. Laps Led (20% weighting): Demonstrates dominance in a race.

4. Pole Positions (10% weighting): Important for initial track position.

5. Wins and Top 5 Finishes (10% each): Indicate ability to not only perform well but also to win.

Let's now calculate a score for each driver based on these weightings to predict the top 10 finishers. This score will combine these factors, weighted by their importance, to give a prediction of driver performance in the upcoming race. We'll then also identify three drivers outside of this top 10 who might perform well based on specific strengths in their historical data. ​

Based on the analysis, here are my predictions for the top 10 finishers in the upcoming 150-lap race at Martinsville Speedway, along with explanations for their projected placements:

Top 10 Predictions:

1. Donny Moore: Predicted to finish first due to his high score from excellent average finishing positions and strong historical performance in leading laps and top 5 finishes.

2. Tom Ogle: His ability to lead a significant number of laps and consistent top finishes in previous races contribute to a high ranking.

3. Lowell Jewell: Consistent performance with considerable experience at this track supports a strong finish.

4. Todd Liston: Shows solid historical results in top finishes and laps led, indicating potential for a high finish.

5. Rex Hoyle: Although not the strongest in pole positions or wins, his balanced performance across metrics supports a top-five finish.

6. Cortney Nelson: Has shown promise with quality passes and consistent top 10 finishes, indicating potential under race pressure.

7. Ryan Pittman: Good past performance with top 10 finishes and quality passes puts him in a strong position.

8. Mike Watts: His experience and consistency in races, reflected in his average finishing position and top 10% finishes, support his ranking.

9. Michael Allen: Despite lower wins, his overall balanced performance across categories supports a top 10 finish.

10. Dale Copeland: Solid past performance with a good balance of laps led and top finishes rounds out the top 10.

Potential Outperformers:

• Ryan Pittman: Placed at 7th, he has potential to perform even better with strong scores in important performance metrics.

• Dale Copeland: At 10th, he shows potential due to his balance of performance across various metrics.

• Bruce Pearson: Not in the top 10 but shows potential due to strong top 10 finishes and quality passes which could translate well in a high-pressure race.

These predictions integrate a range of performance metrics, balancing historical dominance with consistency and potential under pressure, aiming to forecast the most likely top performers in the upcoming race.

Hoyle Finished the Deal at North Wilkesboro

Rex Hoyle picked up where he left off at Richmond two weeks ago except this time the outcome was different.  Hoyle looked strong throughout the race and had built a substantial lead until a late caution threw everything in doubt.  There were no doubt memories of the Richmond fiasco going through his head as the green flag flew with 36 laps to go in the 150-lap event.  However, Hoyle got a great start and picked up where he left off before the caution.  Meanwhile, Brian Bianchi and Tom Ogle got into a lengthy side-by-side battle for second.  This enabled Hoyle to extend his lead and cruise to victory in the inaugural Zach Brewer Classic.

Twenty-two drivers took part in the race which honored the late Zach Brewer, a 44-year-old modified stock car racer from Winston-Salem, North Carolina who died earlier this year.  In honor of Zach, Allen Wannamaker, owner and founder of YesterYear Racing™, drove Zach Brewer’s #79 Hillbilly Racing SMART Tour modified car.  Wannamaker spun in qualifying and put up no time but came from 22nd place to finish fourth on the night earning him the Hard Charger Award.

The race was a relatively tame one with only three cautions coming out during the event.  One of which, was on lap two when Lloyd Moore got loose coming out of turn two.

The race emulated the 1990 Lowe’s 150 which was the third round of the SMART Modified Tour that Year.  The race was won by Ron Jeffreys who passed “Mr. Excitement,” Jimmy Spencer, to win the race.

The YesterYear Racing™ Series will head back to Martinsville Speedway on Tuesday, April 30th before taking the entire month of May off.  The Series will then return in June for a couple of New England races before taking most of the summer off.