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  • Allen Wannamaker

"Hubble" Predicts Donny Moore to Win the Virginia 150

YesterYear Racing™ AI "Hubble" likes Donny Moore in tonight's Virginia 150 tour modified race. The race is the fifth round of the YesterYear Racing League. Tonight's race ends a five-race southern stint. The League will take the month of May off before returning in June for races at Thompson Motor Speedway and Stafford Speedway. Hubble's prediction for tonight's race:

The dataset includes the following key statistics for each race car driver's performance at Martinsville Speedway:

  • Driver Name: Name of the driver

  • Starts: Number of races started

  • Laps: Total laps completed

  • Laps Led: Number of laps led by the driver

  • % Laps Led: Percentage of laps led

  • Incidents Per Lap: Rate of incidents per lap

  • Pole Positions: Number of times the driver started in the pole position

  • Average Race Starting Position: Average starting position in races

  • Average Race Finishing Position: Average finishing position in races

  • Win %: Winning percentage

  • # Wins: Total number of wins

  • # Top 5 Finishes: Number of top-5 finishes

  • # Top 10 Finishes: Number of top-10 finishes

  • % Top 10 Finishes: Percentage of finishes in the top 10

  • Passes: Total number of overtakes

  • Quality Passes: High-quality overtakes

  • Closing Passes: Overtakes made towards the end of the race

Based on these features, the analysis will focus on weighting factors that historically have a significant correlation with race outcomes. Typically, key factors might include Laps Led, Average Race Starting Position, Average Race Finishing Position, # Top 5 Finishes, and # Top 10 Finishes due to their direct impact on race performance.

I'll proceed to exclude drivers with 0 starts at Martinsville Speedway, as requested, and analyze the remaining data to predict the top 10 drivers for the upcoming race. Let's start by cleaning the data and then building a predictive model using a weighted analysis. ​

The statistics provide insights into various performance metrics across the drivers who have participated in races at Martinsville Speedway. Given the range of data, I will now define weightings for each of the important features to predict the outcome of the upcoming 150 lap race. The key factors and proposed weightings based on their importance and impact on the race outcome are:

  1. Average Race Finishing Position (30% weighting): Directly indicative of a driver's ability to finish races in high positions.

  2. % Top 10 Finishes (20% weighting): Reflects consistency in high placements.

  3. Laps Led (20% weighting): Demonstrates dominance in a race.

  4. Pole Positions (10% weighting): Important for initial track position.

  5. Wins and Top 5 Finishes (10% each): Indicate ability to not only perform well but also to win.

Let's now calculate a score for each driver based on these weightings to predict the top 10 finishers. This score will combine these factors, weighted by their importance, to give a prediction of driver performance in the upcoming race. We'll then also identify three drivers outside of this top 10 who might perform well based on specific strengths in their historical data. ​

Based on the analysis, here are my predictions for the top 10 finishers in the upcoming 150-lap race at Martinsville Speedway, along with explanations for their projected placements:

Top 10 Predictions:

  1. Donny Moore: Predicted to finish first due to his high score from excellent average finishing positions and strong historical performance in leading laps and top 5 finishes.

  2. Tom Ogle: His ability to lead a significant number of laps and consistent top finishes in previous races contribute to a high ranking.

  3. Lowell Jewell: Consistent performance with considerable experience at this track supports a strong finish.

  4. Todd Liston: Shows solid historical results in top finishes and laps led, indicating potential for a high finish.

  5. Rex Hoyle: Although not the strongest in pole positions or wins, his balanced performance across metrics supports a top-five finish.

  6. Cortney Nelson: Has shown promise with quality passes and consistent top 10 finishes, indicating potential under race pressure.

  7. Ryan Pittman: Good past performance with top 10 finishes and quality passes puts him in a strong position.

  8. Mike Watts: His experience and consistency in races, reflected in his average finishing position and top 10% finishes, support his ranking.

  9. Michael Allen: Despite lower wins, his overall balanced performance across categories supports a top 10 finish.

  10. Dale Copeland: Solid past performance with a good balance of laps led and top finishes rounds out the top 10.

Potential Outperformers:

  • Ryan Pittman: Placed at 7th, he has potential to perform even better with strong scores in important performance metrics.

  • Dale Copeland: At 10th, he shows potential due to his balance of performance across various metrics.

  • Bruce Pearson: Not in the top 10 but shows potential due to strong top 10 finishes and quality passes which could translate well in a high-pressure race.

These predictions integrate a range of performance metrics, balancing historical dominance with consistency and potential under pressure, aiming to forecast the most likely top performers in the upcoming race.


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